A new ifo indicator compares employment and hiring by age across 140 occupations. In strongly AI-exposed fields, full-time employment of 20 to 24 year-olds fell 14 percent since the third quarter of 2022, from about 279,000 to 239,000 jobs, while overall employment in these fields grew 1.8 percent.
The ifo Institute has built an early indicator linking employment and hiring by age across 140 occupations to how exposed each job is to artificial intelligence. In the most exposed occupations, overall employment grew 1.8 percent since the third quarter of 2022, while it fell 6.4 percent in the least exposed ones. Among workers aged 20 to 24, full-time jobs in the most exposed occupations dropped 14 percent, from roughly 279,000 to 239,000.
ifo president Clemens Fuest views entry-level hiring as an early warning system for the broader labor market. What matters is whether AI supports tasks or fully automates them. In office support and IT support roles, which used to offer solid entry points, AI can already handle many tasks, according to ifo economist Yuchen Guo, which hits demand for young entrants especially hard.
The authors stress that the indicator describes a pattern but does not prove causation. Demographic shifts, longer training periods, or harder onboarding under remote work could also play a role. It remains to be seen how the picture changes as newer AI systems spread into more occupations.
What this means for decision-makers
- Review entry-level hiring programs in fields with high AI exposure such as office and IT support.
- Shift training content toward skills that complement AI rather than compete with it.
- Track hiring figures by age and occupation to spot shifts early.
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